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Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions from experts

By Lee Cleveland - January 22, 2023

At 4:30 PM ET this afternoon, the AFC’s top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) will face the surprisingly hot Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8). And for the second time this season, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will clash with former protégé turned peer Doug Pederson.

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds have Kansas City as a 9.5-point favorite.
  • Kansas City won a Week 10 matchup at home against Jacksonville during the regular season.
  • The Jaguars have won 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8
  • The Chiefs have won 10 of the last 11
  • In the teams’ last 8 games, they are a combined 14-2

Despite their 14-3 record, Kansas City hasn’t been overly dominant this season, winning 8 games by 6 points or fewer. As a result, and because the Jaguars have been playing such good football, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Kansas City doesn’t cover the 9.5-point spread.

There are many elements but six, in particular, stand out.

  1. KC has had nearly 2 weeks to rest

  2. The crowd at Arrowhead, much like fans at the old RFK Stadium in the 1980s, is like having a 12th man on the field and can make things very difficult for visiting teams, especially in the playoffs. Expect to see a rowdy, college-like atmosphere this afternoon.

  3. The Chiefs are 8-1 at home.

  4. Kansas City’s high-powered offense led the league in passing yards while Jacksonville’s defense was 28th in the league against the pass.

  5. The Chiefs match up well with Jacksonville. When these teams played earlier this season, KC thoroughly dominated. The final score of 27-17 wasn’t reflective of what transpired as the Chiefs were up 20-0 just before the half.

  6. While today’s version of Jacksonville is better than the Jaguar team that played the Chiefs earlier in the season, one could argue Kansas City has also improved since then.

FightSaga’s Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction:
Kansas City – 38
Jacksonville – 24

More Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions from a few experts….

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 17
Schuyler Callihan, Sports Illustrated

“Trevor Lawrence threw four picks and was still able to lead his team to victory (last week). It’s unlikely he turns it over that much again but anyone turnover will prove to be costly with Pat Mahomes on the other side. It might be a slow start for the Chiefs but they’ll pull away early in the third quarter.”

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24
Wesley Roesch, Sports Book Wire

“Last week, Lawrence and the Jaguars proved they belong in the playoffs. While the Chiefs are the heavy favorites here, the Jags won’t be easy to beat. Sure, the Chiefs won by 10 points last time they met, but the Jaguars are 7-1 since that loss and are playing much better on both sides of the ball.”

“That said, Kansas City is still in a different tier above Jacksonville. Both the Chiefs offense and defense are clicking at the right time and the team is almost fully healthy. After a much-needed rest, the Chiefs should be able to take care of business at home.”

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 21
Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports

“I don’t think (the Jaguars) are beating the Chiefs. I just don’t. But I do think they’re gonna hang around. I think offensively, they’re going to score points. I think this Chiefs defense has major issues. Block Chris Jones and you’re gonna score. Period. End of story. I know it’s a big thing to do, but if you block him, you’ll score. So I think Jacksonville will score points, I think they’ll hang around in the game, but I do think the Chiefs will win. So I’ll take the Jaguars AND the Over as two of my best bets in this game.”

What’s your Cheifs vs Jaguars prediction?