Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:47

McGregor vs Alvarez odds: Analysis and outcome preview

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When looking over the odds for UFC 205’s superfight between Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor, it becomes pretty evident that the sportsbooks favor an early finish.

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As we previously analyzed, McGregor is the favorite and the odds are very close for a fast ending. On October 20, 2016, 5dimes had McGregor the slight favorite.

Conor McGregor -150
Eddie Alvarez +120

Hence, a $150 bet on Conor would yield $100 and a $100 wager on Eddie would bring $120.

Since McGregor is the favorite to win and almost all of his wins have come via quick knockout, the odds tend to suggest the fight will end that way... By an early knockout.

Should Conor really be the favorite heading into this fight though?

If you have followed the career of Conor McGregor, you have certainly heard the echoes of his grappling abilities. McGregor has only fought one fighter you could label a wrestler, Chad Mendes (a fight McGregor won by TKO).

But Eddie Alvarez might be a stylistic nightmare for McGregor.

He’s a really good wrestler who has out-grappled some of the best lightweights in world, and if you have followed his comments regarding McGregor over the years, he has made it no secret that he will try to take McGregor to the ground.

Also, Alvarez is no slouch standing up. He should be able to stand and trade with McGregor, although it wouldn't be his best strategy.

Here are three on-point McGregor vs Alvarez odds scenarios provided by 5dimes.

Alvarez wins in round 2: +875
If Alvarez survives the early storm that is atypical of McGregor then there is a good chance Conor fades cardio-wise. McGregor tried to be conservative in the last fight with Nate Diaz, but even then he crashed considerably after the first round.

Let’s not forget that Nate Diaz submitted McGregor in the second round of their first fight after McGregor gassed. Unlike Diaz, Eddie is going to apply offensive grappling and wrestle McGregor, a grueling strategy cardio-wise.

Will McGregor will fade early, again?


McGregor vs Alvarez
UFC 205

Date: Nov 12, 2016
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City

Title: Lightweight
Champion: Alvarez


Alvarez wins in round 3: +1075
Without getting repetitive, these odds are very good for the same reasons as the round 2 finish. The longer the fight goes, the odds of Alvarez winning via stoppage increase. Oddly, the odds don’t depict that.

McGregor wins in round 2: +675
While McGregor is certainly capable of the one-punch knockout, most of his TKOs come as a result of accumulative punishment. He’s a really accurate striker who damages his opponents until they ultimately fold.

Alvarez is not the greatest defensive striker; he has some bad habits that put him in tough situations. Don't forget, he has been dropped several times in his career.

But Eddie is extremely durable and has been in some absolute wars. And while he’s not a guy who will fold under pressure, McGregor has shown he can make opponents crumble.

This is a solid bet especially if you think McGregor will win. A McGregor decision win after 5 rounds is highly doubtful McGregor. If Conor wins, it’s going to come by knockout and will likely happen in the first two rounds.

Honorable Mentions
-Alvarez by Unanimous Decision: +880
-McGregor by Split/Majority Decision: +1105
-Draw: +6500 (why not at those odds?)

Mark Weber

Born and raised in Philadelphia, I currently reside in South Jersey which is about 20 minutes away from Philly.

I'm a Communications major at Gloucester County College and lifelong fan of several sports, including Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Kickboxing.

I fell in love with Boxing during the era of the little giants... Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, Manny Pacquiao, and Juan Manuel Marquez.