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Pacquiao vs Marquez 4 Odds: Favorite May Surprise

Lee Cleveland Updated
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If you think Juan Manuel Marquez will finally be the odds-on favorite in a Pacquiao vs Marquez bout, think again. Despite his lackluster performances against Shane Mosley in May 2011 and Juan Manuel Marquez six months later, and his recent loss (albeit controversial) to Tim Bradley in June, Manny Pacquiao is the clear favorite to defeat Juan Manuel Marquez in their fourth meeting.

Pacquiao vs Marquez Odds

(As of Dec 7, 9:37 pm EST)

Pacquiao (-280), Marquez (+220)

Over/Under (-210) to go the distance and (+170) for it to end before the final bell

Odds for the winner range from Manny Pacquiao -250 to -280 and may fluctuate a bit more as fight time approaches. And if you're expecting PacMan to win inside the distance, whether via KO or disqualification, you're looking at odds around +225. For those insisting Marquez will stop Pacquiao prior to the final bell, try a mind-blowing +850.

The over/under is about -270 to +185 for 10.5 rounds and for 8.5 rounds, it is roughly -400 to +250. 

Pacquiao vs Marquez odds this year are quite a bit different from the -800 (Pacquiao) and +500 (Marquez) rates for Pacquiao vs Marquez III. Back then, many believed it was a mismatch.

And as a result, public sentiment was heavily on Pacquiao's side last time but such is not the case this year as the Mexican seems to have more of a swagger to him these days. Moreover, not only do some think he edged Pacquiao in their third sequel, many are impressed by JMM's new physique and recent performances.

In addition, Marquez sincerely thinks he was robbed against Manny Pacquiao in each of their previous three bouts so many believe the revenge factor will play a major role for him in this bout.

Pacquiao vs Marquez IV Fight Poster

pacquiao marquez dec8

So why is Manny Pacquiao still the favorite?

1. Marquez is 0-3: Agree with the verdicts or not, Juan Manuel Marquez has failed - at least officially - to defeat Manny Pacquiao in three bouts. In their first bout 8 years ago, he heroically escaped defeat by storming back to earn a draw with PacMan after being floored three times in the opening round. And in bouts two and three, Pacquiao was awarded split and majority decisions, respectively.

All three bouts had controversial verdicts and many argue, perhaps with some validity, Marquez should be 3-0 against the great Filipino. However, had Marquez been awarded all three bouts, rest-assured nay-sayers would insist PacMan should have been victorious at least twice.

Regardless, the fact remains Marquez is win-less against Pacquiao in three tries.

2. Four Knockdowns and the 'Hurt' Factor: Manny Pacquiao has scored four knockdowns against Marquez yet has never tasted the canvas against the Mexican. Perhaps odds-makers believe this gives Pacquiao a slight advantage, physically and psychologically. We know Pacquiao can hurt and knockdown Marquez but can the fighter dubbed "Dinamita" do the same to PacMan?  

Manny has taken Marquez to dangerous places. And while Pacquiao has been buzzed and jolted a few times, he hasn't appeared to be in any real danger against Marquez.

3. Marquee Attraction: This shouldn't mean anything but boxing history suggests it means quite a bit. A comprehensive review of boxing's past will show the marquee fighter wins an overwheming majority of close fights. And the ratio isn't 55 or 60% either... Try 80 or 90%. For some reason, the fighter with the most name recognition who's the bigger 'draw' tends to receive the benefit of the doubt.

And on Saturday night, Manny Pacquiao will be the marquee fighter and has probably always maintained that advantage over Marquez to a certain degree.

Pacquiao is one of the most beloved athletes ever and experts and oddsmakers are certainly taking this into consideration even though most won't admit it. Whether consciously or sub-consciously, they believe the marquee fighter (Manny Pacquiao) will get the benefit of the doubt in most of the close, hotly-contested rounds.

But don't fret Marquez fans. Marquee fighters don't ALWAYS get the benefit of the doubt. Miguel Cotto got no love from the judges against Austin Trout last week. And Manny Pacquiao, himself, was arguably on the wrong end of the verdict against Bradley. But Pacquiao vs Bradley is certainly the exception and not the rule. Its extremely rare in the history of boxing for a marquee fighter to lose controversially. Usually, he's the fighter the public accuses of winning unfairly or is the victor in close bouts that could have conceivably been won by either fighter.

Boxing history is replete with instances of marquee fighters winning questionable decsions.  Recent examples are Malignaggi vs Diaz I, Rios vs Abril, Helenius vs Chisora, Sturm vs Macklin and Cloud vs Campillo).

Pacquiao vs Marquez Weigh-In. Fighters looked ripped and ready.


The Intelligent Money ?

Some say the wise money is on Marquez because he came so close last time and appears to be the hungrier, more focused, more disciplined of the two. Juan Manuel Marquez seems obsessed with defeating Manny Pacquiao while PacMan seems to have lost a bit of his luster since they last fought 13 months ago. And although Pacquiao is still a physical phenom, his endeavors and obligations outside boxing appear to have had a negative impact on his mindset towards this brutal, very demanding sport.

But Manny Pacquiao maintains, "I still love boxing. It is what made me who I am. It is my first priority right now. After the bout, my focus will go back to politics..."

So should Manny Pacquiao really be the favorite?


BUT regardless of why one warrior is the favorite and the other an underdog, Pacquiao and Marquez always bring out the best in each other...And watching legends duel in high stakes bouts is always intriguing.

Pacquiao vs Marquez Trilogy Highlights Below...


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