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Mayweather vs Maidana 2: Prediction, keys to victory

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We are less than a day away from one of the most anticipated rematches in recent years as Floyd Mayweather Jr (46-0, 26 KOs) takes on Marcos Maidana (35-4, 31 KOs) for the second time in four months.

Their first fight was arguably the toughest fight of Mayweather’s career and left quite a few questions:

Is Father Time catching up with Mayweather, or did he just have a bad night?  Is Maidana’s aggressive the answer to the 'MayVinci Code' and who will make the better tactical adjustments to win the rematch?

Here are the 3 Keys to the fight for each fighter:

Floyd Mayweather

Stay off the ropes: In their first fight, Maidana had his most success when he was able to back Mayweather against the ropes and throw power punches. It is imperative that Mayweather keep the fight at mid to long range where he can utilize his hand and foot speed to his advantage.

Maidana is set to come into the ring lighter than he did in their first fight. If Floyd is able to keep the fight in the center of the ring, he’ll win a much wider decision than the first fight.

Increased aggression: Mayweather’s exceptional defense can be detrimental to his fight plan, as at times he is too defensive. As a result, an opponent can win rounds on sheer punch volume alone.

In their first fight, Maidana threw 432 more punches than Mayweather. In what should be another competitive fight, Mayweather needs to let his hands go more often Saturday night, especially when Maidana misses with his wild punches and is off balance.

Work the body: Since Maidana tends to fade in the second half of fights, Floyd should target his foe's body early and often with jabs and hooks. An early body assault will impact Maidana later in the bout, tapering his aggressive attack and causing him to fatigue even more.

Keys For Maidana

Throw 100 punches per round: This has been the calling card for Maidana’s and his trainer, Robert Garcia, since their first fight in May. In that bout, Maidana was able to execute this plan well prior to tiring in the latter rounds. If Maidana is able to unleash 100 punches per round for 12 rounds, judges may award him the close rounds on sheer activity rate alone, regardless of whether his punches are landing.

Given he has had a full eight weeks in training and plans to enter the ring lighter, look for Maidana to throw more than the 858 punches he unleashed in the first fight.

Keep Mayweather to the ropes: In conjunction with the first key (above) for Maidana, Marcos was able to keep Floyd pinned on the ropes during the first half of their initial encounter. If he’s able to force Mayweather to the ropes again and longer, he’ll be able to throw more punches and smother Mayweather’s attack. If Maidana is unable to force Mayweather to the ropes, he has no shot at winning.

Get physical: Maidana’s roughhouse tactics rattled Mayweather in their first fight, eventually producing a cut over Floyd's right eye. Maidana needs to do more of the same in the rematch by making it an ugly street fight. He needs to bully Mayweather as much as he can without jeopardizing point deductions.

Mayweather vs Maidana 2 prediction
In their first fight, Maidana exceeded expectations and Mayweather appeared to have an off night. Expect for Mayweather to make adjustments, keep the fight in the middle of the ring, and to be more elusive when Maidana is on the attack.

Floyd Mayweather wins a unanimous decision 117-111,116-112, 116-112.


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