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Martinez vs Chavez Jr 2: Why odds wouldn't be in Maravilla's favor

Lee Cleveland Updated
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Sergio 'Maravilla' Martinez ... How about that name for a blast from the past?

Like Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao, there's talk of another high-profile rematch brewing.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr vs Sergio Martinez. What are the odds this fight will come to fruition?

Well, it won't happen November 17 because Julio is slated to face someone else December 1 on the undercard of Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury.

In 2012, Sergio Martinez, as the RING Magazine / lineal middleweight champion, gave the younger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. a boxing lesson for eleven rounds before having to survive a knockdown and apparent near knockout en route to winning a wide unanimous decision. The scores were 118-109 twice and 117-110.

Much to the approval promoters Bob Arum and Lou DiBella, Chavez vs Martinez purportedly drew a live gate of $3,052,475 Million USD from 16,939 tickets sales via a sold out Thomas and Mack Center, according to Keith Kizer, the Nevada State Athletic Commission executive director.

... And the PPV numbers were higher than anticipated.

But back to Martinez vs Chavez 2…
For starters, a rematch wouldn’t generate revenue comparable to their first fight.

So, why is the Argentine so hellbent on a rematch with Chavez? Martinez is 43 and hasn't fought since 2014. Moreover, didn't he retire as a result of multiple knee surgeries? In his last fight, a KO loss to Miguel Cotto, it was evident that Martinez's legs were not there, even with knee braces on and clearly visible, Cotto knocked Martínez down three times in the first round.

“If you don't’ want the fight, say it now!," Martinez challenged Chavez on the social media."

"I want to give you another beating on November 17th."

“Stop delaying, accept and sign the contract because you challenged me. Do you remember?"

“I’m ready to fight you. I agreed to go up to 168 pounds, the date of November 17. I accepted everything and I am ready to give you another beating."

“Maybe I’m crippled but my fists are not. Are you waiting to sign or will you run?”

Long odds
Should Chavez vs Martinez 2 take place, Sergio would be facing an uphill battle despite his dominance in the first fight. And yes, Chavez is only 4-2 since their first meeting and hasn't looked good. However, he's only 32, has fought 4 times since Sergio retired and went the distance with Canelo Alvarez in his most recent outing.

Sergio would be a big underdog in the rematch due to his:

  1. Age (43)
  2. Four year plus hiatus from boxing
  3. Bad knees
  4. Willingness to fight at super middleweight

All the above factors favor Junior. And while Martinez insists his knees are feeling much better, we'll believe it when we see it.

In 2012, the odds opened tight, with Martinez the favorite at -170 while Chavez sat at +150 on the books. Martinez was also the favorite against Cotto.

If Sergio can, somehow, convince fans, promoters and at least one network that he's healthy and fit enough to be a worthy opponent for Chavez Jr., some interest in this fight might be generated due to their rivalry.


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