Canelo vs Smith odds take unexpected turn

Joseph Herron Updated
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Tonight, Saturday,, September 17, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, lineal Middleweight champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) will challenge incumbent WBO Super Welterweight titlist Liam "Beefy" Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) in the main event of a four-bout PPV fight card, distributed by HBO PPV, and presented by Golden Boy Promotions.

Canelo vs Smith, including all major preliminary bouts, can be purchased and viewed streaming online through for a one time fee of $64.99, with Hall of Fame commentators Colonel Bob Sheridan and Larry Merchant calling the action for the Golden Boy Promotions feed.

The HBO PPV distribution, with commentators Jim Lampley and Max Kellerman calling the action, can be purchased through your preferred cable and satellite provider with a start time of 9PM ET/6PM PT.

Die-hard fight fans can see all eight, off-TV preliminary bouts, featuring GBP prospects Eddie Gomez, Sadam Ali, Hector Tanajara Jr. and Joshua Franco, by going to at 3:20PM ET/12:20PM PT!!

Canelo vs Smith odds
When the 154 pound match-up was officially announced back in July, the Mexican superstar was listed as a slightly better than 11 to 1 betting favorite (-1125) on most Race and Sports Books, while the current champion was featured as a 7 to 1 (+725) betting underdog.

It was largely believed that the odds would shorten as the fight date drew nearer, with American audiences becoming better acquainted with the relatively unknown British Champion as the promotion advanced. But instead, the adverse has held true with odds consistently drifting away from the 28 year old Briton over the last two months.

Canelo vs Khan highlights 
(The odds tightened in the weeks leading up to the fight)

With most observers locked into a future match-up between the current Ring Magazine Middleweight champion and the recognized best 160 pounder in the world, Gennady Golovkin, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez is currently listed as a 12 to 1 (-1225) betting favorite on most Sports Books, while Liam Smith is registered as an almost whopping 9 to 1 (+875) betting underdog.


Golovkin vs Brook betting line
Despite racking up an impressive eight consecutive knock-out victories leading into tonight's main event, the Liverpool native is marching into the event as somewhat of a long-shot. To put market indicators into its proper perspective, current IBF Welterweight champion Kell Brook was featured as a 4 1/2 to 1 or (+450) betting underdog in last weekend's marquee match-up in London, England, opposite reigning Middleweight champion GGG, who was listed as a 6 to 1 (-600) betting favorite.

Canelo vs Smith odds have widened. Why are so many bettors sleeping on the current Junior Middleweight world champion?

Odds explained
Although the betting underdog has a noticeable height advantage, and is currently fighting within his natural weight class of 154 pounds, most view the Mexican superstar as the far more talented and naturally gifted fighter, possessing better reflexes, speed, power and overall athleticism.

Canelo is also viewed as the more skilled fighter, with a very underrated defense and the ability to throw creative combinations to the body and head, which are extremely difficult for any opposing fighter to anticipate. Because Alvarez is a crafty pocket counter puncher by trade, most experts believe the 26 year old, two-division world champion matches up favorably with the customarily "aggressive" reigning title holder as well.

Is the assessment fair and accurate? Are the Canelo vs Smith odds well-paced?

Smith is a much better fighter than the odds currently indicate. The current WBO world champion is trained by Ring Magazine's "2015 Trainer of the Year", Joe Gallagher, who has nurtured an impressive and versatile skill set in his young champion.

Liam has proven that he can box proficiently from mid to long range, and can also effectively be the aggressor in the ring, depending on the style of his opposition

In his title winning effort against American John Thompson on October 10, 2015, the reigning Junior Middleweight champ displayed notable physical and mental durability, as well as a great amount of discipline and intelligence in gradually imposing his will against his opposition, methodically breaking down the quicker fighter over the course of seven impressive rounds.

Although the visiting U.S. boxer/puncher was the visibly faster and sharper man in the ring, Liam Smith wisely worked behind his jab and used his footwork to successfully move in and out of range while gradually closing the distance in the second half of the contest.

Because Canelo will be fighting within the 154 pound division limit for the first time in three years, there's a very good possibility that Liam will implement the same patient strategy, looking to impose his will in the back half of the scheduled twelve round fight and ultimately testing the Mexican fighter's conditioning and durability.

Who will reign supreme in Canelo vs Smith, tonight's intriguing Super Welterweight match-up?

Who knows? But regardless of how one bets for this evening's main event, the fans are sure to win in this terrific style match-up and WBO Junior Middleweight title fight.

Liam Smith highlights

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