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Canelo vs Golovkin 2 odds: Should betting lines be much wider for rematch?

Lee Cleveland Updated
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So, you think middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin owned Canelo Alvarez last month despite the verdict?

And you expect Golovkin to be a much stronger favorite in the rematch?

… Not so fast.

Canelo vs Golovkin 1 odds
Prior to September's bout, Golovkin was the slight favorite, hovering around -151. Alvarez was the underdog at roughly +131.

Close betting lines.

However, although action-packed and competitive, some will assert the odds were closer than the fight itself.

Canelo vs GGG 2 odds (as of Oct 2017)
Early rematch odds label the champion as the favorite again at approximately -165 while Canelo is sitting around +135. 

Should betting lines be closer for Canelo vs GGG 2? Should they be wider? Or are the betting lines well-placed?

While some will insist the rematch odds should be significantly wider in Golovkin's favor, the intangibles tell us otherwise.

The onus is on Golovkin... Again
As we projected prior to last month's meeting, a fight that was remotely close would favor Canelo, the A-side fighter. In high-profile boxing, the A-side fighter wins a competitive bout 4 of 5 times. (There’s no fixing. That’s simply how it is)

Given Canelo vs GGG was officially a draw, it’s not difficult to see that Alvarez enjoyed the benefit of the doubt in difficult-to-score rounds on judges' cards. Thus, as the A-side fighter, Alvarez entered the bout with a small, unofficial scoring advantage and will do so again in the rematch.

To beat a more popular foe on the big stage, the other guy must usually score a knockout or win on points very comfortably ie. Rigondeaux vs Donaire (2012) or, more recently, Garcia vs Broner.

The first fight - and boxing history - suggest that if Golovkin doesn't score a knockout or clearly and decisively separate himself from Canelo, we are likely to see one of the following results (in order of probability) for the rematch:

1) A wide or narrow Canelo win
2) Another draw
3) A split or majority decision for GGG

Hence, even if Golovkin wins 117-111 on most experts' cards, he'll, at best, probably be awarded a narrow (or split) decision by the judges.

It would behoove Gennady to score one or two 2 point rounds via a knockdown and/or battering Canelo from pillar to post in one or more of the stanzas, as a 10-8 Golovkin round would take some of the pressure off GGG.

GGG is being forced to win two in a row
Gennady Golovkin mighy the world's best boxer but defeating Canelo Alvarez in back-to-back fights is no easy task for anyone.

Canelo's handlers forced Team Golovkin to accept a rematch clause prior to the first fight knowing the odds Alvarez would win 1 of 2 versus Golovkin were much better than his winning a lone fight. 

Essentially, we shouldn't be evaluating odds for Canelo vs Golovkin 2 as a single fight; We should be asking ourselves: What are the odds of GGG getting the better of Canelo in back-to-back fights?

And let’s not forget, Canelo has a great team and they will have made adjustments for the rematch based on what happened in the first fight. How many adjustments will GGG's team make? Given last month’s strategy seemed to work (despite the faulty verdict), they might not change their approach much and simply hope the scoring is better the second time around.

Canelo vs GGG odds
Most of us saw Golovkin "defeat" a very game Canelo in what may have been the latter's most impressive performance as a pro. However, given the above intangibles, the betting lines should remain close for the rematch. In fact, don't be surprised if the odds are even at fight time.

While Golovkin should have been awarded last month's bout, there's no reason to make him a strong favorite in the rematch.

The rematch odds are well-placed thus far.


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