Canelo vs GGG 3 odds: Why new underdog emerges

Lee Cleveland Updated
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Say it isn't so.

If the early odds hold, Gennady 'GGG' Golovkin would likely be the underdog first the first time in his career should he face Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez a third time.

As of October 7, 2018, bookies betfair, Paddy Power and Bet Stars list Canelo as their favorite.

Paddy Power and betfair have identical numbers with Canelo sitting at 8/13 while Golovkin is starting at 5/4. Bet Stars lists Alvarez at 3/4 and GGG at 11/10.

If the betfair and Paddy Power odds hold, a successful $100 wager on GGG would yield $125 in net revenue while the same successful wager on Canelo would return a net profit of about $61.50.

That may seem a bit surprising considering many believe Golovkin bested Canelo in both fights despite Canelo's recent decision win and the draw last year.

So, what's going on?

Common sense.

These odds are well-placed because it seems GGG can't win a decision against Canelo, even when he should. Although I had Alvarez winning the rematch by a round, I thought it could have gone either way. However, Golovkin was clearly robbed of win in the first bout.

Nearly a month after the rematch, fans are still debating the result of Canelo's narrow points win. Those who favor GGG insist he landed more punches, 234-202 according to CompuBox, and was the ring general. On the other side, those who thought the verdict was fair will point to Canelo's 143-116 edge in powershots landed and Alvarez's effective aggression.

... And both sides can make a valid case for their fighter.

Given the fighters' styles and previous verdicts, GGG must do something extraordinary to unseat the popular Alvarez. And at this moment, bookies think we are more likely to see another Canelo win, whether clear or controversial, than a triumphant GGG.

More importantly, Canelo performed much better in the rematch. Instead of Golovkin cementing his superiority with another galiant performance, Alvarez, at the very least, left us with a giant question mark in the rematch. Moreover, since he improved in the rematch and is significantly younger, bettors are left with no other choice than to make him the favorite.

And lastly, because Canelo will enter their third fight as champion and, perhaps, an even stronger A-side, his team will have more leverage in negotiating the intangibles such glove type, ring size, fight location and venue and judge selection (depending on location).

Even if you believe GGG deserved to win both times, it shouldn't be easy to understand why Canelo is the early favorite for Canelo vs GGG 3. That stated, betting against Golovkin is always a risky endeavor so be careful.

Do you think the Canelo vs GGG odds are well-placed?

N.B: SkyBet has both fighters at 10/11 so not all bookies are in agreement that Alvarez should be the favorite although I have yet to find one who lists Alvarez as the underdog.

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