Canelo vs Cotto: Prediction and Preview

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In the aftermath of Floyd Mayweather’s illustrious career, boxing is searching for a new star to take his place.

Tonight, Saul Alvarez and Miguel Cotto will do battle in another Mexico VS Puerto Rico rivalry matchup for the lineal middleweight championship.

Both camps have agreed to a catch weight of 155 pounds but the WBC Middleweight Title will be on the line. And both combatants are not true middleweights in the size aspect of the division; but as we have seen, size isn’t the biggest factor when a fighter’s talent level is so supreme.

This bout is giving boxing fans a guaranteed action fight between two of the most talented fighters in the sport.

The bout was talked about a year ago but failed to materialize because it was slated to take place on Cinco de Mayo weekend, which is the date that Floyd Mayweather had traditionally fought on for several years.

Oscar De La Hoya decided to challenge Mayweather for the date by scheduling Cotto-Canelo on May 2nd. In doing so he pretty much compromised the fight because Floyd immediately stopped Cotto-Canelo from taking place by offering Cotto a rematch on the same date.

Common sense tells us that Cotto would prefer a rematch with the pound for pound king seeing as how he gave Mayweather trouble in spots during their first fight. Plus, a bout with Canelo will be on the table in the future, whereas the opportunity to fight Floyd again was now or never since Floyd’s career was in its final stage. So Cotto chose to put the Canelo fight on hold for a possibility that he would get Mayweather.

At the end of the day it’s a good move because why not fight both instead of just one.

We all know that Mayweather went on to fight Manny Pacquiao instead of Cotto, defeating the Filipino in a career defining fight. But we can’t blame Cotto for making himself available for the opportunity of a lifetime. So here we are back at square one with the fight that was sure to happen at some point.

With all the hype that comes with Mexico VS Puerto Rico, along with the fame of Canelo and Cotto, we have a bout that has the chance to break the pay per view records that Mayweather set with Pacquiao. If this bout commands more than 4.5 million buys, look for Mayweather to come out of retirement and face the winner. But it is still a big IF.

Beyond all the hype, when these two get into the ring, we have pretty close to a 50-50 fight. Alvarez is the bigger man but I truly believe that Cotto is the better boxer. I can see Cotto taking the early rounds with his footwork and speed. Alvarez has had trouble cutting off the ring and we all know that along with Cotto’s devastating body punching ability and desire to bang it out, he knows how to use the ring to his advantage.

Alvarez can fall behind early if he starts following his man around like he did against Lara. It is important for Canelo to use his jab to cut off the distance. Cotto is going to jab and hook to the body, then circle out.

In the meantime if Miguel is moving he will be putting rounds in the bank. Alvarez has to break up the rhythm by jabbing with Cotto. This will not only disrupt Cotto’s movement but will stop him from getting off with his left hook. If Alvarez can break Cotto’s rhythm, he will be able to fire combinations of his own and put rounds in his bank account. This will not be an easy task for Alvarez because Cotto’s feet are well educated and he will most likely be in better punching positions throughout the early rounds.

Where I see this fight changing directions is in the middle to late rounds. When Cotto fought Margarito, we saw him box circles around the bigger man but burn a lot of energy in the process. He was not able to hurt Margarito with his power shots and it caused the Puerto Rican to tire. I believe we are looking at a similar scenario in this fight.

Although Miguel Cotto is probably a better boxer than Alvarez, I see him having difficulty hurting Alvarez with his power shots. Alvarez will be anywhere from ten to fifteen pounds heavier than Cotto by fight time after rehydrating and eating.


Canelo vs Cotto prediction
Canelo’s boxing ability keeps improving and he has shown a very durable chin throughout his career. My prediction is Cotto will bank the majority of the early rounds but he will spend a lot of energy in doing so. Although Cotto wins some rounds, Alvarez is a much better boxer than Margarito and will slow down Miguel’s punch output by jabbing with him and breaking up his rhythm once the middle rounds approach. I see Alvarez stopping a bloody and tiring Cotto somewhere between the 8th and 12th rounds once Cotto’s legs can’t keep him out of harm’s way anymore.

In the aftermath of the fight talks of the winner VS Golovkin will begin. But ultimately if Canelo and Cotto break the pay per view record or even come close to it, look for Mayweather to call out the winner.

Floyd is one fight away from 50-0 and he will not be able to stay on the sidelines if two of his former opponents can fight each other and demand comparable numbers to his biggest fight. So stay home this weekend, put up that extra cash, and buy the fight because this is not one to miss. Not only will you see a war, but if the numbers are big enough it will set up another huge event in 2016.


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