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Canelo vs Chavez Jr upset? Is GGG vs Junior a possibility?

Lee Cleveland Updated
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At this moment, the biggest fight in boxing is middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin vs former two division belt-holder Canelo Alvarez. But...

What if there's an upset in Saturday night's big Canelo vs Chavez Jr showdown?

(Image courtesy of Round by Round Boxing)

Should Julio Cesar Chavez Jr derail Canelo would there be a demand for Chavez vs Golovkin - and would both teams be interested?

Answer: Very likely

However, if Chavez Jr won a snoozer or via a hotly disputed verdict, the demand for such a match-up would be curbed.

According to sources, Golovkin and his promoter Tom Loeffler will be angling to face the winner of Canelo vs Chavez Jr.

“We’ll see what happens," Loeffler recently told ESPN.

"If Chavez wins, we’d love to have a Chavez fight, also."

"We’ll see what happens on May 6 and see if we can make a deal.”

Two Questions

1. Weight limit: Should Chavez Jr win, would Golovkin's team agree to what would be a presumed 168 lb affair? Golovkin's team would accept a Chavez fight in a heartbeat at a 160-165 pound limit. But what if Team Chavez demands a true super middleweight affair?

Although Canelo vs Golovkin will be contested at a catchweight of 164.5 pounds, a Chavez Jr upset over Alvarez would certainly give the former enough leverage to negotiate a higher catchweight.

Would Team Golovkin accept the fight at the super middleweight limit of 168 pounds?

... It seems that way.

“We’ve always said that Gennady could move up to 168 if it made sense," said Loeffler to BoxingScene.com recently.

"We tried to make the Chavez fight [at 168]. We tried to make the Froch fight [at 168]."

"Andre Ward, he’s got the Kovalev rematch. If he can win that one and come back down to 168 - I think that's a great fight.”

Quick fact:
During Summer 2011, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., then mentored by Freddie Roach, sparred five rounds with a little-known Gennady Golovkin prior to the former's WBC middleweight title showdown with Sebastian Zbik. The Chavez Jr vs Golovkin sparring session is on YouTube.

2. Money: Canelo and Golovkin have yet to fight because Gennady is presumably too much risk for the reward for Canelo, arguably boxing's top draw. Why would Team Alvarez put their ace in the ring with a monster like Golovkin when there are safer options that might yield as high as 70 percent of the revenue GGG vs Canelo would produce?

Keep in mind, Canelo made a lot of money fighting Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto. In fact, he earned decent purse sums facing the likes of Alfredo Angulo, Amir Khan and Liam Smith. As a result, Alvarez's promoter would quite naturally want a ridiculous payday for a Golovkin superfight.

... So would the same problem exist with Chavez Jr vs Golovkin?

Presumably not.

Canelo vs Chavez Jr
Date: May 6, 2017
Location: Las Vegas
Broadcast: HBO PPV
Cost (est):$59.99 Standard def

Division: Super Middleweight (164.5 lb catchweight)
Title: None
Favorite: Alvarez


Neither guy's purses have been nearly as high as Canelo's so their expectations would be lower and the reward would likely justify the risk for both fighters.

Should there be an upset Saturday night and Chavez Jr is impressive in victory, there would be little reason to believe Golovkin vs Chavez Jr wouldn't happen this fall.

From a business perspective, they would need each other a little more than Canelo needs Golovkin at this moment. 


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