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Joshua vs Helenius betting: Should AJ aim for a first-round KO?

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It seems like Anthony Joshua is psyched for his bout against Robert Helenius on Saturday.

The fight’s circumstances have changed due to Dillian Whyte’s positive drug test, but Joshua is taking the challenge seriously.

Joshua aims to impress and move forward with a potential fight against Deontay Wilder in the future. He acknowledges that comparisons will be made between his performance and Wilder’s against Helenius, but he’s focused on his own strategy for this particular fight.

Joshua is aware of the dangers Helenius poses and won’t underestimate him. He’s determined to win and aims to finish the fight early if possible.

“I can’t fail. That’s good pressure. Fight hard and win,” Joshua said.

“There’s always going to be comparisons, but this is my fight with Helenius. Not Wilder’s fight, or anyone else’s fight. It’s just me and him.”

“It’s the wrong mindset with Helenius. He is going to roll the dice. What’s he got to lose? It’s going to be a good fight but I want to take him out in round one if I can. I need to take him out. Helenius has got to worry about me, and I’ve got to worry about myself,” Joshua said.

AJ has been training with Derrick James and is looking to showcase improvements over his last fight against Jermaine Franklin following his losses to Oleksandr Usyk.

Joshua vs Helenius betting
Obviously, Joshua is a substantial favorite according to bookmakers, with betting odds of 3/50 (-1700) to win outright. This suggests a high likelihood, around 91%, of Joshua securing the victory. On the other hand, Robert Helenius is the underdog with odds of 9/1 (+900), indicating a 9% chance of an upset victory.

Initially, Joshua had even stronger odds in his favor, while Helenius had less favorable odds. However, as time passed, the odds for Helenius have become slightly more favorable, suggesting that some people are starting to believe in his potential performance.

In summary, a $100 bet on Joshua would yield a relatively small profit of $5.88 if he wins, due to his heavily favored status. On the other hand, a successful $100 bet on Helenius would result in a much larger profit of $900, considering his underdog status.

For those who are willing to take a risk, betting on the underdog, Helenius, might be a tempting option.

Why do we like the odds?

  • Helenius has risen to the occasion twice before to defeat a heavily-favorited opponent (Adam Kownacki)
  • The underdog has excellent power in both fists.
  • The Finn is a seasoned veteran of 15 years and 36 fights
  • Although it was a while back, Helenius has KO’d the likes of former belt holders Lamon Brewster, Sam Peter, and Siarhei Liakhovich
  • He stands 6’6″ 1/2 with an 80-inch reach and isn’t; ‘t easy to fight from a distance
  • Joshua has dropped 3 of his last 5 bouts and hasn’t looked dynamic since his TKO of Alexander Povetkin in Sep 2018

Should Joshua come out aggressively and look for a 1st Round Stoppage?

AJ has the right mindset. Absolutely not.

We think it would be a mistake for Joshua to turn ‘Mike Tyson’ on Helenius, become overly aggressive, and seek a first-round knockout. That’s not AJ’s style and the 39-year-old Helenius still has excellent knockout power and can counterpunch fairly well.

If you’re Joshua, who cares if Wilder KO’d Helenius in less than a round? Muhammad Ali beat a bunch of fellas who beat up similar opponents quicker and more decisively than he did.

It’s all about style match-ups. The best fighters beat the best opponents. Period. How many rounds it took Fighters A and B to defeat Fighter C is often irrelevant.

We’re not picking an upset, but love the betting line and the match-up. And while Helenius, Joshua’s current replacement opponent, isn’t as dangerous as his previous substitute, Andy Ruiz, we acknowledge Helenius’s credentials and insist he’s a live dog.

Please share your thoughts on the betting as well as Joshua’s presumed preoccupation with defeating Helenius in one round.

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