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Canelo vs Charlo odds / analysis: CONTROVERSY?

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.Canelo Alvarez is set to defend his undisputed super middleweight championship against Jermell Charlo, the undisputed super welterweight king.

This fight is being marketed as ‘undisputed vs. undisputed’ as Jermell Charlo holds all four belts at the 154-pound division. However, he will be stripped of his WBO title once he enters the ring against Canelo, and his existing 154-pound belts won’t be at stake in case of a loss.

The World Boxing Organization plans to take Jermell’s 154-pound belt and promote interim champion Tim Tszyu to full champion status. While this isn’t the ideal path for Tszyu to become a champ at 154, he is prepared to accept the opportunity.

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Canelo vs Charlo
Sat, Sep 30, 2023
12 Rounds, for Alvarez’s Undisputed Spr Middleweight Title
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
PPV
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The marketing angle of both fighters being undisputed champions is aimed at attracting casual fans. Hardcore boxing enthusiasts are more focused on the actual fight dynamics. Charlo’s fighting style is compared to Dmitry Bivol’s, suggesting he could outbox Canelo if the latter hasn’t addressed the weaknesses that Bivol exploited. This gives the impression that Charlo is a serious contender who aims to take Canelo’s belts and establish his dominance.

Canelo has fought at the T-Mobile Arena several times in recent years and will be intensively training in high-altitude areas to build his conditioning for the fast-paced fight he anticipates against Charlo. Both fighters express their excitement about the match, with Canelo recognizing Charlo’s achievements and Charlo stating his determination to showcase his skills as the best fighter in the sport.

Ultimately, this clash between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo is expected to be a historic and high-stakes fight, attracting attention from boxing fans worldwide.

Canelo vs Charlo odds

Will Canelo be able to deal with a quick, technically-sound opponent who is unbeaten and can box and brawl? Keep in mind, both of his losses thus far are to unbeaten, technically proficient opponents with quick hands and feet (Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol).

Per Odds Shark on August 9, Alvarez’s -230 status equates to a win probability of 69.70%, and a winning $100 bet on him pays $143.48. The underdog Charlo gets a 37.04% chance and a successful $100 bet yields $270. 

Most important element
But, the most important factor might not be Charlo’s speed and movement nor Canelo’s power or accuracy. The ultimate elephant in the room will likely be Canelo’s status as a popular, mainstream undisputed world champion and how much credence the judges will give him because of those things.

Regardless of how well Charlo performs, history suggests he’ll need something close to a knockout to win.

Recently, former Canelo foe Austin Trout, speaking to FightHype, said he wasn’t optimistic of a Charlo win, even if Jermell outboxes Alvarez.

“I’m going with Canelo. Even if Charlo puts up a great fight and edges it out, you think he’s going to get a decision?”

“That’s how I feel. I hope Charlo shocks them.”

“If I was a betting man, I’d say bet on Canelo. Because I think it’ll be hard for Charlo to get the decision, and it’ll be hard for him to knock Canelo out.”

It’s true that in the world of boxing, A-side fighters often seem to enjoy certain advantages, whether it’s in terms of judging decisions, crowd favoritism, or promotional backing. This has been a topic of debate and controversy for many years. Fighters who have established themselves as popular figures and have a fan-pleasing style might indeed receive more favorable treatment from judges and fans alike.

Canelo Alvarez has certainly had his share of close fights and controversial decisions over his career. The outcomes you mentioned against Gennady Golovkin, Erislandy Lara, and others have sparked discussions about the fairness of judging and scoring in boxing.

Boxing’s history is rife with instances where fighters on the A-side seemed to benefit from the benefit of the doubt.

The example of Canelo’s “majority decision” loss to Floyd Mayweather and the judges’ scoring not aligning with the perceived dominance of Mayweather in that fight is an illustration of how even well-established fighters can have close and disputed decisions.

It’s often stated in boxing circles that to secure a decision victory as the B-side fighter, one must not only win but do so decisively, leaving no room for doubt. This sentiment reflects the reality that judges’ decisions can be influenced by factors like crowd response, pre-existing perceptions, and the overall appeal of the fighter.

Against Canelo, Dmitry Bivol fought a near-perfect fight and left no doubt he deserved the win yet still barely escaped with one. To beat an A-side fighter like Canelo Alvarez requires a stoppage within the distance or a serious beatdown in the absence of a knockout.

In boxing, just as in many other sports, there’s an element of subjectivity involved in judging and scoring. This subjectivity, coupled with the dynamics of popular fighters and their favor with audiences, contributes to the complexity and sometimes controversy of decision-making.

Bettors keep that in mind.

Boxing stars such as Sugar Ray Leonard, Muhammad Ali, Joe Louis, Mike Tyson, and Rocky Marciano enjoyed similar advantages.

For anyone who saw Buster Douglas’ masterpiece upset of Tyson in 1990, the judges shockingly had it a draw heading into Round 10. And while an unpopular Frankie Randall defeated superstar Julio Cesar Chavez in their first encounter, don’t forget he needed a knockdown and “two” point deductions just to eke out a victory in a bout he should have won convincingly.

And what about Danny Garcia vs Mauricio Herrera… Brandon Rios vs Richar Abril… James Toney vs Dave Tiberi…. De La Hoya vs Sturm… Canelo Alvarez vs Austin Trout. I can go on and on.

Boxing history is replete with popular A-side fighters being awarded controversial decisions. And while there are “some” surprises (such as the first bout between Manny Pacquiao and Tim Bradley, and the Larry Holmes vs Michael Spinks rematch) where the strong A-side fighter loses a close battle, those situations are few and far between.

Ultimately, while the unfair advantages and controversies you mentioned have been part of boxing’s history, the sport continues to evolve, and discussions about judging fairness persist.

Will Canelo vs Charlo follow the historical trend?

Don’t be surprised if it does.

If you expect Charlo to nip Canelo by decision in a close fight, don’t.

Surely, Team Charlo realizes that outboxing Canelo may not be enough. If Jermell doesn’t get the knockout, he’s going to have to embarrass Canelo by boxing rings around him or produce a few knockdowns in order to win.

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