Sunday, 12 February 2017 18:18

Pacquiao vs Horn odds: Does change in venue hurt Aussie's chances?

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So much for Jeff Horn fighting Manny Pacquiao in the former's native Brisbane, Australia in front of adoring fans.

According to Pacquiao's adviser, Michael Koncz, Pacquiao vs Horm will “100 percent be in the United Arab Emirates", either in Abu Dhabi or Dubai.

Initially, it appeared the Queensland Government and Brisbane City Council had locked down Suncorp Stadium in Australia but negotiations fell through.

So what does this mean?

The apparent change in venue and location will impact the young challenger more than the experienced legend.

When a fighter's chances of winnning are as slim as Jeff Horn's are against Pacquiao, home field advantage can be key for the underdog because he enters the fight having to deal with one less obstacle.

Moreover, you never know much fighting at home will inspire a fighter to go above and beyond, performance-wise.

Speed, power, experience, technique and, perhaps, conditioning are all in Manny's favor. At least Horn would have had the crowd and Australian media on his side.

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Pacquiao vs Horn
Date: April 23, 2017
Venue: TBD
Location: UAE
Broadcast: TBD in the U.S.
Division: Welterweight
Title: WBO
Champion: Manny Pacquiao
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Had the fight taken place in Brisbane, Horn would have probably had at least 40,000 of the 50,000 in attendance in his corner. His supporters may have, to some degree, uplifted and inspired him to fight on a level he's never reached.

Moreover, Jeff may have gotten the benefit of the doubt in close rounds.

Now the young Aussie, who has never fought outside Australia or New Zealand, will not only be fighting for the first time on boxing's biggest stage, he'll be fighting in unfamiliar territory and, perhaps, in front of a very pro Pacquiao crowd.

Advantage: Manny Pacquiao (as if he needed another)

As of February 9, when it was believed the fight was headed for Brisbane, Manny was roughly a 1/9 favorite while his opponent, Aussie Jeff Horn, is understandably a heavy underdog at 13/2. Hence, a $900 wager on Pacquiao would yield a $100 return while the same wager on Horn would profit a bettor $650.

And Pacquiao's overall liklihood of winning is roughly 92 percent.

How much will oddsmakers and the general public take the change in venue into consideration when figuring Horn's chances? Horn won't be fighting in the friendly confines of his native Brisbane; He'll be facing a legend in his first high-profile bout in unfamiliar territory.

In the UAE, unlike Brisbane, Horn is just another nameless, faceless "opponent" being fed to a star.

 
 
Lee Cleveland

Lee is Managing Editor of FightSaga.com, a student of the Sweet Science and longtime boxing fan.

A gym rat in the 1990s, Lee was trained by 1976 Olympic Silver Medalist Charles Mooney and several retired seasoned pros. He was also a sparring partner for former WBA Super Middleweight Champion Steve Little who upset Michael Nunn for the WBA Super Middleweight Title in '94.

Lee created FightSaga.com to honor and preserve boxing's rich heritage, chronicle the achievements of top fighters, celebrate the legacy of big fights and provide a fun, educational experience for fight fans.  

 Fightsagacom@gmail.com 

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