Pacquiao vs Horn odds: Why underdog might get some playWritten by Lee Cleveland
According to oddsmakers, the probability of fight legend and WBO Welterweight Champion Manny Pacquiao successfully defending his title on April 23rd is quite high.
As of February 9, Manny is roughly a 1/9 favorite while his opponent, Aussie Jeff Horn, is understandably a heavy underdog at 13/2. Hence, a $900 wager on Pacquiao would yield a $100 return while the same wager on Horn would profit a bettor $650.
And Pacquiao's overall likelihood of winning is roughly 92 percent.
Lopsided odds, but we've seen much greater.
It's obvious to most fans why Manny Pacquiao is a strong favorite. He boasts far more experience than Horn, has fought and beaten superior opposition, is believed to be mor etechnically sound and ring intelligent, and is arguably the quicker and more powerful of the two.
With all of those elements favoring Pacquiao, would anyone even consider betting on Horn?
For starters, Pacquiao is 38 and while he looked sensational in his last two bouts, a fighter his age with his significant physical wear and tear can get old overnight.
... It happens in boxing. They look fine and then 'hit a brick wall.'
Roy Jones Jr is a classic example of a 35+ fighter who was the crème de la crème of boxing one year and a faded contender the next.
Secondly, given his senatorial obligations are so demanding, it would be easy for Pacquiao to enter this bout ill-prepared. Senator Pacquiao has an insanely busy schedule.
"I don't know if Manny Pacquiao can continue to manage his career in the Senate with his career in boxing," the Top Rank CEO admitted to FightHype.com in September, six weeks prior to Manny's win over Jessie Vargas.
Pacquiao vs Horn
Date: April 23, 2017
Venue: Suncorp Stadium Not confirmed
Location: Brisbane, Australia Not Confirmed
Broadcast: TBD in the U.S.
Champion: Manny Pacquiao
"For me, it maybe seems like it's too much. But I don't know...Manny has a lot of energy, and we're going to see."
Focus and mentality play such a big role in boxing... How much is Manny thinking about Jeff Horn? And how badly does PacMan really want to win?
And lastly, if they fight in Horn's native Brisbane Jeff will likely have 50,000 roaring fans in his corner. They could uplift him, and inspire him to fight on a level he's never reached before. Moreover, should he fight at home, Jeff might get the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and come away with a gift decision.
The great Manny Pacquiao is the clear favorite but given his age, senatorial responsibilities, a presumed declining interest in boxing, and the possible location, an upset wouldn't be totally unfathomable.... Although it would still be shocking.
Lee is Managing Editor of FightSaga.com, a student of the Sweet Science and longtime boxing fan.
A gym rat in the 1990s, Lee was trained by 1976 Olympic Silver Medalist Charles Mooney and several retired seasoned pros. He was also a sparring partner for former WBA Super Middleweight Champion Steve Little who upset Michael Nunn for the WBA Super Middleweight Title in '94.
Lee created FightSaga.com to honor and preserve boxing's rich heritage, chronicle the achievements of top fighters, celebrate the legacy of big fights and provide a fun, educational experience for fight fans.